Communicating complex forecasts: an analysis of the approach in Nepal's flood early warning system
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Mirianna Budimir, Amy Donovan, Sarah Brown, Puja Shakya, Dilip Kumar Gautam, Madhab Uprety, Michael Cranston, Alison Sneddon, Paul Smith, Sumit Dugar
Abstract
Abstract. Early warning systems have the potential to save lives and improve
resilience. However, barriers and challenges remain in disseminating and
communicating early warning information to institutional decision-makers,
community members and individuals at risk, including unequal access,
insufficient understanding, and inability to act on warning information.
Research was undertaken to analyse and understand the current flood early
warning system in Nepal, considering available data and forecasts,
information flows, early warning dissemination, and decision-making for early
action. Data were collected from key informant interviews, community-level
questionnaires, and a national stakeholder workshop and qualitatively
analysed. The availability and utilisation of simple and complex flood
forecasts in Nepal, and their integration into dissemination, and decision
support tools were reviewed, considering their impact on improving early
action to increase the resilience of vulnerable communities to flooding.
Results suggest that as Nepal continues to advance in hydro-meteorological
forecasting capabilities, efforts are simultaneously needed to ensure these
forecasts are more effectively communicated and disseminated.
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