To investigate trends, optimal levels for cardiometabolic risk factors, and multifactorial risk control in diabetic nephropathy and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with diabetes and matched controls.
<strong>Research Design and Methods</strong>
This study included 701,622 patients with diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register and 2,738,137 controls. Trends were analyzed with standardized incidence rates. Cox regression was used to assess excess risk, optimal risk factor levels, and risk according to the number of risk factors, in diabetes.
ESKD incidence among patients with and without diabetes initially declined until 2007 and increased thereafter, whereas diabetic nephropathy decreased throughout follow-up. In patients with diabetes, baseline values for glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, and body mass index were associated with outcomes. Hazard ratio for ESKD in patients with type 2 diabetes who had all included risk factors at target was 1.60 (95% CI, 1.49–1.71) compared with controls, and in type 1 diabetes 6.10 (95% CI, 4.69–7.93). Risk for outcomes increased in a stepwise fashion for each risk factor not at target. Excess risk for ESKD in type 2 diabetes showed a hazard ratio of 2.32 (95% CI, 2.30–2.35) and in type 1 diabetes, 10.92 (95% CI, 10.15–11.75), compared with controls.
Incidence of diabetic nephropathy has declined substantially, whereas ESKD incidence has increased. Traditional and modifiable risk factors below target levels were associated with lower risks for outcomes, particularly notable for the causal risk factors of SBP and HbA1c, with potential implications for care.