Siberia is a "hot spot", that is, local changes in a given territory can cause global climatic and ecosystem changes. The territory of Siberia is covered by extensive forest cover, which can have a significant effect on the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This influence can be significant not only within the region under consideration, but also can have a global response. In the context of global climate change, we need to know what kind of land surface changes are possible for the territory. It is important to understand, for example, how greenhouse gas fluxes or land cover types can be changed. This knowledge will provide an opportunity to assess for different regions the risks associated with such kind of changes and will allow to develop the most effective ways of adapting the population, industry and agriculture to this changes.
Estimation of the response of the Siberian vegetation cover to climatic changes was carried out using the JSBACH land-surface model developed at the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M). This model simulates the behavior of various surface characteristics (such as greenhouse gas fluxes from the surface to atmosphere, the distribution of various types of vegetation, etc.) depending on the external atmospheric conditions.
To specify the atmospheric conditions required for the JSBACH surface model to work, the fields preliminarily taught by the global large-scale model of intermediate complexity PLASIM and the model of the climatic system INMСМ4 were used. Variation of the climatic conditions was carried out through the climate scenario RCP 8.5, according to which the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases with the simulation from 296 ppm to 936 ppm.
A comprehensive analysis of carbon stocks and fluxes in managed Siberian forests is needed to quantify their role in the production of biomass and mitigate the effects of climate change. The next aim is to quantify, using modeling framework for Siberia, the main C fluxes as affected by land [...]
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