Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation release_n2xm77tz6jap3p24qht33miiyy

by John Ioannidis

Published in npj Vaccines by Springer Science and Business Media LLC.

2021   Volume 6, Issue 1, p99


<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title>People receiving COVID-19 vaccines may subsequently markedly increase their previously suppressed exposure risk. A simple model can evaluate the benefit of vaccination to the vaccinated (index) person and others exposed to that person; and calculate the amount of risk compensation required to eliminate all the benefits or to halve the benefit. As shown, 2.5-fold increase in exposure will eliminate the benefit of a vaccine of moderate efficacy (<jats:italic>E</jats:italic> = 0.6) unless the probability of infection in the population of interest is very high. With very high vaccine efficacy (<jats:italic>E</jats:italic> = 0.95), substantial benefit is maintained except in situations where there is a very low probability of infection in the population. If the vaccine efficacy decreases to 0.8, the benefit gets eroded easily with modest risk compensation. Risk compensation may markedly affect the benefit of COVID-19 vaccination, especially if vaccine efficacy in real-life or specific high-risk populations (e.g., nursing home residents) is not very high.
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Type  article-journal
Stage   published
Date   2021-08-11
Language   en ?
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ISSN-L:  2059-0105
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