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Modelling the epidemiological trend and behavior of COVID-19 in Italy
release_lbmp2wdskfctxhtzjhl7xsqofy
by
Alessandro Rovetta, Akshaya Bhagavathula
Released
as a post
by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.
2020
Abstract
As of March 16, 2020, over 185,000 across the world, Italy became the red hotspot for the COVID-19 pandemic after China. With over 35,000 cases and 2900 deaths reported in the month of March in Italy, it is necessary to stimulate epidemic trend to understand the behavior of COVID-19 in Italy. By S.E.I.R. simulation, we estimated the most representative epidemic parameters occurred from March 1 to 14, 2020, thus being able to evaluate the consistency of the containment rules and identify possible Sars-Cov-2 local mutations. Our estimations are based on some assumptions and limitations exited.
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