Modelling the epidemiological trend and behavior of COVID-19 in Italy release_lbmp2wdskfctxhtzjhl7xsqofy

by Alessandro Rovetta, Akshaya Bhagavathula

Released as a post by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory.



As of March 16, 2020, over 185,000 across the world, Italy became the red hotspot for the COVID-19 pandemic after China. With over 35,000 cases and 2900 deaths reported in the month of March in Italy, it is necessary to stimulate epidemic trend to understand the behavior of COVID-19 in Italy. By S.E.I.R. simulation, we estimated the most representative epidemic parameters occurred from March 1 to 14, 2020, thus being able to evaluate the consistency of the containment rules and identify possible Sars-Cov-2 local mutations. Our estimations are based on some assumptions and limitations exited.
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Date   2020-03-23
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