Seçimlerin Ekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama
release_fdwklhlvonaarfeszfz4wfia4q
by
Funda Yurdakul, Arda Doğruöz
Abstract
This study aims to explore the effects of election periods on the economy from the perspective of the "public choice theory". We selected our variables from among those focused by the research that examine elections from the standpoint of political business cycles; i.e., exports, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Wholesale Price Index(TEFE), the number of unemployed, and non-performing loans. Then, we constructed simultaneous models in which these variables were explored as endogenous variables. We used dummy variables for general and local elections in these models and identified 2002:04-2020:04 as our study period. We estimated the coefficients for the econometric models we constructed by using the Engle-Granger and Dynamic Least Squares methods. Our analysis results demonstrate that manipulative decisions and arrangements made before elections do not always create business cycles. Expenditures during election periods impose a permanent burden on the system and the economic arrangements during election periods may not result in political business cycles. Moreover, it is harder for the government in power to manipulate policy objectives than to manipulate policy instruments. Because policy instruments such as public expenditure and money supply are largely controlled by the government in power, while government intervention in indicators such as Gross National Product, exports, inflation, and unemployment is relatively limited. Keywords: Engle-Granger Method, Dynamic Least Squares method, Political Business Cycles. Jel Code: E32, C01, G18
In application/xml+jats
format
Archived Files and Locations
application/pdf 665.3 kB
file_wuj6fbil45h4nmp45v4hyupsxa
|
www.sobider.net (publisher) web.archive.org (webarchive) |
article-journal
Stage
published
Date 2021-11-11
Open Access Publication
Not in DOAJ
In ISSN ROAD
Not in Keepers Registry
ISSN-L:
2548-0685
access all versions, variants, and formats of this works (eg, pre-prints)
Crossref Metadata (via API)
Worldcat
SHERPA/RoMEO (journal policies)
wikidata.org
CORE.ac.uk
Semantic Scholar
Google Scholar