Short-term Load Forecasting at Different Aggregation Levels with Predictability Analysis release_drf2t3wcsrhmnigsghdbqlszeu

by Yayu Peng, Yishen Wang, Xiao Lu, Haifeng Li, Di Shi, Zhiwei Wang, Jie Li

Released as a article .

2019  

Abstract

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Though many STLF methods were proposed over the past decades, most of them focused on loads at high aggregation levels only. Thus, low-aggregation load forecast still requires further research and development. Compared with the substation or city level loads, individual loads are typically more volatile and much more challenging to forecast. To further address this issue, this paper first discusses the characteristics of small-and-medium enterprise (SME) and residential loads at different aggregation levels and quantifies their predictability with approximate entropy. Various STLF techniques, from the conventional linear regression to state-of-the-art deep learning, are implemented for a detailed comparative analysis to verify the forecasting performances as well as the predictability using an Irish smart meter dataset. In addition, the paper also investigates how using data processing improves individual-level residential load forecasting with low predictability. Effectiveness of the discussed method is validated with numerical results.
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Date   2019-03-26
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arXiv  1903.10679v1
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