Development and validation of a mortality risk model for pediatric sepsis release_dbttwwbhnncknnyv7wyvojbgqa

by Mengshi Chen, Xiulan Lu, Li Hu, Pingping Liu, Wenjiao Zhao, Haipeng Yan, Liang Tang, Yimin Zhu, Zhenghui Xiao, Lizhang Chen, Hongzhuan Tan

Abstract

Pediatric sepsis is a burdensome public health problem. Assessing the mortality risk of pediatric sepsis patients, offering effective treatment guidance, and improving prognosis to reduce mortality rates, are crucial.We extracted data derived from electronic medical records of pediatric sepsis patients that were collected during the first 24 hours after admission to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of the Hunan Children's hospital from January 2012 to June 2014. A total of 788 children were randomly divided into a training (592, 75%) and validation group (196, 25%). The risk factors for mortality among these patients were identified by conducting multivariate logistic regression in the training group. Based on the established logistic regression equation, the logit probabilities for all patients (in both groups) were calculated to verify the model's internal and external validities.According to the training group, 6 variables (brain natriuretic peptide, albumin, total bilirubin, D-dimer, lactate levels, and mechanical ventilation in 24 hours) were included in the final logistic regression model. The areas under the curves of the model were 0.854 (0.826, 0.881) and 0.844 (0.816, 0.873) in the training and validation groups, respectively.The Mortality Risk Model for Pediatric Sepsis we established in this study showed acceptable accuracy to predict the mortality risk in pediatric sepsis patients.
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Published in Medicine by Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
ISSN-L 0025-7974
Volume 96
Issue 20
Page(s) e6923
Release Year 2017
Publisher Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Primary Language en (lookup)

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Type  article-journal
Stage   published
Year   2017
DOI  10.1097/md.0000000000006923
PubMed  28514310
PMC  PMC5440147
Wikidata  Q33714429
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ISSN-L:  0025-7974
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