Second versus first wave of COVID-19 deaths: shifts in age distribution and in nursing home fatalities release_6pzcmw3e6na25gijo53agiinsi

by John P. A. Ioannidis, Cathrine Axfors, Despina G. Contopoulos-Ioannidis


OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the age distribution of COVID-19 deaths and the share of deaths in nursing homes changed in the second versus the first pandemic wave. ELIGIBLE DATA: We considered all countries that had at least 4000 COVID-19 deaths occurring as of November 25, 2020, at least 200 COVID-19 deaths occurring in the first wave period, and at least 200 COVID-19 deaths occurring in the second wave period; and which had sufficiently detailed information available on the age distribution of these deaths. We also considered countries with data available on COVID-19 deaths of nursing home residents for the two waves. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Change in the second wave versus the first wave in the proportion of COVID-19 deaths occurring in people <50 years old among all COVID-19 deaths and among COVID019 deaths in people <70 years old; and change in the proportion of COVID-19 deaths in nursing home residents among all COVID-19 deaths. RESULTS: Data on age distribution in eligible locations were available for 11 countries. Individuals <50 years old tended to have a larger share in the total COVID-19 deaths in the second wave than in the first wave in western European countries and the USA, but the absolute difference did not exceed 0.5% in any country. The proportion of deaths in individuals <50 years old was higher in Turkey and Ukraine, but it decreased in the second wave. Separate data on nursing home COVID-19 deaths for first and second waves were available for 9 countries. With the exception of Australia, the share of COVID-19 deaths that were accounted by nursing home residents decreased in the second wave, and the decrease was significant and substantial (relative risk estimates: 0.28 to 0.78) in 7/9 countries. CONCLUSIONS: In the examined countries, age distribution of COVID-19 deaths has been fairly similar in the second versus the first wave, but the contribution of COVID-19 deaths in nursing home residents to total fatalities has decreased in most countries in the second wave.
In application/xml+jats format

Released as a post by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Release Date 2020-11-30
Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

Known Files and URLs

There are no accessible files associated with this release. You could check other releases for this work for an accessible version.

No Full Text Available "Save Paper Now"
Know of a fulltext copy of on the public web? Submit a URL and we will archive it
Type  post
Stage   unknown
Date   2020-11-30
Work Entity
grouping other versions (eg, pre-print) and variants of this release
Cite This Release
Fatcat Bits

State is "active". Revision:
As JSON object via API