On Generalized Computable Universal Priors and their Convergence
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by
Marcus Hutter
2005
Abstract
Solomonoff unified Occam's razor and Epicurus' principle of multiple
explanations to one elegant, formal, universal theory of inductive inference,
which initiated the field of algorithmic information theory. His central result
is that the posterior of the universal semimeasure M converges rapidly to the
true sequence generating posterior mu, if the latter is computable. Hence, M is
eligible as a universal predictor in case of unknown mu. The first part of the
paper investigates the existence and convergence of computable universal
(semi)measures for a hierarchy of computability classes: recursive, estimable,
enumerable, and approximable. For instance, M is known to be enumerable, but
not estimable, and to dominate all enumerable semimeasures. We present proofs
for discrete and continuous semimeasures. The second part investigates more
closely the types of convergence, possibly implied by universality: in
difference and in ratio, with probability 1, in mean sum, and for Martin-Loef
random sequences. We introduce a generalized concept of randomness for
individual sequences and use it to exhibit difficulties regarding these issues.
In particular, we show that convergence fails (holds) on generalized-random
sequences in gappy (dense) Bernoulli classes.
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