Tailoring Extended Deterrence: How States Provide a Security Umbrella release_ehktl2l64zbwzkcmuiws4xae6q [as of editgroup_4ft55fkmfbbadfsyww4xqiztae]

by Do Young Lee

Published by The University of Chicago.

2020  

Abstract

What extended deterrence strategies are available to nuclear patrons and what factors determine which strategy they will adopt? How does each strategy manifest as force employment? The bulk of extended deterrence literature focuses on its effectiveness. The question of how nuclear patrons select between and employ strategies of extended deterrence, however, has largely been overlooked. This dissertation aims to answer the questions by identifying the divergent causal paths that lead patrons to develop a distinct extended deterrent posture over time and across clients. Addressing the first, or strategy adoption, question, I argue that the interaction of two variables—1) the type of threat posed to a client by an enemy and 2) the likelihood of an enemy's quick victory over a client—determines a nuclear patron's strategy among four options: "forward nuclear deployment," the "nuclear defense pact," "forward conventional deployment," and the "conventional defense pact." More specifically, I predict that when a patron judges that the enemy's quick victory is highly likely and a client faces an existential threat, a patron will adopt a strategy of "forward nuclear deployment." Second, when the enemy's swift victory seems unlikely and a client is under an existential threat, a patron will adopt a "nuclear defense pact" strategy. Third, when the enemy's swift overrun of a client is likely and a client faces only a non-existential threat, a patron will adopt a "forward conventional deployment" strategy. Finally, when the enemy's swift victory seems unlikely and a client faces a non-existential threat, a patron will adopt a "conventional defense pact" strategy. Addressing the second, or strategy implementation, question, I argue that each strategy is characterized by a unique mix of conventional and nuclear assets prepositioned in either forward or rear areas. "Forward nuclear deployment" is embodied as the combination of on-shore tactical nuclear weapons and substantial conventional shield troops along the frontline. Secon [...]
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Type  thesis
Stage   published
Year   2020
Language   en ?
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